Plant ecology, resources and taxonomy

Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution of Praxelis clematidea in China Using Random Forest Model

  • 张华纬,李志鹏
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  • (1. Fujian Polytechnic of Information Technology, Fuzhou 350003, Fujian China; 2. Institute of Digital Agriculture Research, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou 350001, Fujian China)

Received date: 2022-11-23

  Accepted date: 2023-02-06

  Online published: 2023-05-08

Abstract

Praxelis clematidea is now causing serious damage to the plant of south of China. By predicting suitable habits in China, scientific basis can be provided for the agricultural and forestry departments to strengthen the prevention and control of P. clematidea. Based on 296 distribution record sites of P. clematidea distributed in China, domestic climate factors and topographic factors, the random forest model and geographic information system (GIS) technology were used to predict its potential habitat areas in China. The predicted results from the random forest model were achievable. The primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of P. clematidea was the minimum temperature in the coldest month, followed by the average annual precipitation, while topographic factors and land use type were less influential. P. clematidea mainly locate in the southern provinces of China, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, southern Jiangxi, southwestern Yunnan belonged to the high habitat of P. clematidea, accounting for 8.08% of the national land area; coastal Zhejiang, central Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing junction and other areas belonged to the moderate or general habitat, accounting for 2.32% and 3.37% of the national land area, respectively. Low-suitability and non-suitability zones accounted for 9.09% and 77.14% of the country's land area, respectively. There was no significant change in the total area of P. clematidea suitable zone under the future climate scenario compared with the current stage, but the area of moderate suitable zone increased significantly from 2.32% to 4.33%. In the context of global warming, P. clematidea is not yet at its maximum reproduction range in China, and there is a possibility of its continuous spread.

Cite this article

张华纬,李志鹏 . Prediction of Potential Geographic Distribution of Praxelis clematidea in China Using Random Forest Model[J]. Subtropical Plant Science, 2023 , 52(1) : 50 -59 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2023.01.008

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