Plant ecology, resources and taxonomy

Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas of Two Species of Parthenium in China under Climate Change

  • 王春晓,刘 阳,钟址非,罗 真,林希霆,毛 玥,王生生,邓传远
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  • (College of Landscape Architecture, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, Fujian China)

Received date: 2023-02-15

  Accepted date: 2023-03-15

  Online published: 2023-05-15

Abstract

Based on the multi-period CMIP6 climate variable data and the global species distribution data of two species of Parthenium, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate and analyze the potential suitable areas of two species of Parthenium. The results showed that the AUC values of the simulated prediction results in each period were all greater than 0.9, indicating that the model prediction was accurate and the results were reliable. The dominant factors affecting Parthenium hysterophorus were the wettest season rainfall, the coldest season average temperature, temperature seasonality, and isothermality. The dominant factors affecting P. argentatum were the average daily temperature range, isothermality, the driest month rainfall, and the coldest season average temperature. Under the influence of climate change, the potential suitable area of P. hysterophorus will expand in the future, and the potential suitable area of P. argentatum will not change much; under the influence of climate change, the migration direction of the potential suitable area of P. hysterophorus is mainly north-south direction, and the latitude changed. At present and in the future, the high suitable areas of P. hysterophorus are mainly in South China and Southwest China. In the future, P. hysterophorus will have suitable areas in Central China, East China and North China. Compared with the gray silver chrysanthemum, the invasion of silver chrysanthemum in China is more serious. We should focus on the invasion dynamics of silver chrysanthemum and strengthen its monitoring and prevention and control.

Cite this article

王春晓,刘 阳,钟址非,罗 真,林希霆,毛 玥,王生生,邓传远 . Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas of Two Species of Parthenium in China under Climate Change[J]. Subtropical Plant Science, 2023 , 52(2) : 125 -134 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2023.02.006

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