Research articles

Population Structure of Abies chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area

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  • (1. National Key Laboratory of Germplasm Innovation and Utilization of Horticultural Crops / College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei China; 2. Wild Animal and Plant Conservation Station of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, Hubei China; 3. Forestry Administration of Shennongjia Forest Region, Shennongjia 442499, Hubei China)

Received date: 2025-08-04

  Accepted date: 2025-11-03

  Online published: 2025-12-31

Abstract

Abies chensiensis, a National Key Protected Wild Plant at Category Ⅱ, is distributed discontinuously in high-altitude areas of the transitional zone between north subtropical and warm temperate zones in China, and is highly sensitive to temperature. It possesses ornamental, medicinal, and ecological values. However, its population has been decreasing due to climate warming and human disturbance. To scientifically protect A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area, this study investigated and analyzed its population structure using the transect line method and quadrat method; ArcGIS and MaxEnt model were used to predict its potential suitable habitats and analyze the main environmental factors affecting its distribution. The results were as follows: (1) There are 5569 individuals of A. chensiensis in the Shennongjia Forest Area; There were 221 species of vascular plants belonging to 155 genera and 75 families in the community where A. chensiensis was located in Shennongjia Forest Area, which could be divided into 13 geographical components, and the temperate distribution was the basic characteristic of the community. (2) Population size classification indicated that seedlings and young trees had a low frequency of occurrence in the 20 quadrats, and age class classification showed that trees in the middle diameter class accounted for a large proportion. The distribution area of A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area was estimated to be between 1.33~1.85 km2, and the number was between 34 517 and 40 965 using ArcGIS software. (3) The MaxEnt model prediction showed that under the current climate scenario, mean annual temperature (bio1) and isothermality (bio3) were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of A. chensiensis in the Shennongjia Forest Area, with contribution rates of 33.9% and 29.0%, respectively; the total suitable habitat area of A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area was about 827.08 km2, concentrated in the northwest of the region. Under different future climate scenarios, the area of its suitable habitats would decrease to varying degrees.

Cite this article

LI Bing-qian, XU Zi-jing, PU Yun-hai, WANG Li, QU Ding-lian, XIANG Ming, FU Qiang, LIU Xiu-qun . Population Structure of Abies chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area[J]. Subtropical Plant Science, 2025 , 54(6) : 660 -671 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2025.06.008

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