关键词: 薇甘菊, 地理分布, 适生区, 预测, MaxEnt模型

Abstract: Through a comprehensive field survey, the distribution points of Mikania micrantha were collected and the distribution map of M. micrantha was drawn in Zhongshan, Guangdong. Meanwhile, the environmental variables of actual distribution points of M. micrantha were quantitatively analyzed by MaxEnt model, predicting the suitable distribution areas of M. micrantha in Zhongshan under the current climate. Results showed that M. micrantha was distributed in all 25 towns (or streets) and Municipal Nature Reserve Management and Protection Center under the jurisdiction of Zhongshan, presenting more in the south and less in the north in general. AUC values of the ROC curve were all above 0.8, suggesting that the predicted results had relatively high credibility. Precipitation seasonality, altitude, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter were main environmental variables that limit the distribution of M. micrantha in Zhongshan, with a cumulative contribution rate of 75.5%. 95.40% of the areas in Zhongshan had varying degrees of suitability for the growth of M. micrantha, among which the areas of high, medium and low suitable areas accounted for 5.33%, 33.56%, and 56.51% of the areas of Zhongshan, respectively. In summary, M. micrantha invaded Zhongshan seriously, and the spreading trend had not been contained; MaxEnt model could predict the suitable distribution areas of M. micrantha in Zhongshan, but there was a certain deviation.

Key words: Mikania micrantha, geographical distribution, suitable distribution area, prediction, MaxEnt model