Abstract: Praxelis clematidea is now causing serious damage to the plant of south of China. By predicting suitable habits in China, scientific basis can be provided for the agricultural and forestry departments to strengthen the prevention and control of P. clematidea. Based on 296 distribution record sites of P. clematidea distributed in China, domestic climate factors and topographic factors, the random forest model and geographic information system (GIS) technology were used to predict its potential habitat areas in China. The predicted results from the random forest model were achievable. The primary environmental factor influencing the distribution of P. clematidea was the minimum temperature in the coldest month, followed by the average annual precipitation, while topographic factors and land use type were less influential. P. clematidea mainly locate in the southern provinces of China, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, southern Jiangxi, southwestern Yunnan belonged to the high habitat of P. clematidea, accounting for 8.08% of the national land area; coastal Zhejiang, central Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing junction and other areas belonged to the moderate or general habitat, accounting for 2.32% and 3.37% of the national land area, respectively. Low-suitability and non-suitability zones accounted for 9.09% and 77.14% of the country's land area, respectively. There was no significant change in the total area of P. clematidea suitable zone under the future climate scenario compared with the current stage, but the area of moderate suitable zone increased significantly from 2.32% to 4.33%. In the context of global warming, P. clematidea is not yet at its maximum reproduction range in China, and there is a possibility of its continuous spread.

Key words: Praxelis clematidea, random forest model, potential distribution, geographic information system

摘要： 假臭草Praxelis clematidea已对我国南方植物造成严重危害，通过预测其在中国的适生区，可为农林部门制定与加强防控措施提供科学依据。以我国296个假臭草分布记录点、国内气候因子和地形因子为基础，利用随机森林模型和地理信息系统(GIS)技术预测其在我国的潜在适生区。随机森林模型预测结果可信；影响假臭草分布的主要环境因子是最冷月份最低温度，其次是年均降水量，而地形因子和土地利用类型的影响较小；假臭草的主要适生区域位于我国南方各省(区)，其中广东、广西、海南、福建、江西南部、云南西南部属于假臭草的高度适生区，占全国陆地面积8.08%；浙江沿海、江西中部、四川与重庆交界处等地区属于中度或一般适生区，占全国陆地面积2.32%和3.37%；低适生区和非适生区分别占全国陆地面积的9.09%和77.14%。在未来气候情景下，假臭草适生区总面积与现阶段相比无明显变化，但中度适生区面积增长明显，由2.32%增至4.33%。因此，在全球气候变暖的环境下，假臭草在国内还未达到最大繁殖范围，有持续扩散的可能性。

关键词: 假臭草, 随机森林模型, 潜在分布, 地理信息系统