Abstract: Based on the multi-period CMIP6 climate variable data and the global species distribution data of two species of Parthenium, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate and analyze the potential suitable areas of two species of Parthenium. The results showed that the AUC values of the simulated prediction results in each period were all greater than 0.9, indicating that the model prediction was accurate and the results were reliable. The dominant factors affecting Parthenium hysterophorus were the wettest season rainfall, the coldest season average temperature, temperature seasonality, and isothermality. The dominant factors affecting P. argentatum were the average daily temperature range, isothermality, the driest month rainfall, and the coldest season average temperature. Under the influence of climate change, the potential suitable area of P. hysterophorus will expand in the future, and the potential suitable area of P. argentatum will not change much; under the influence of climate change, the migration direction of the potential suitable area of P. hysterophorus is mainly north-south direction, and the latitude changed. At present and in the future, the high suitable areas of P. hysterophorus are mainly in South China and Southwest China. In the future, P. hysterophorus will have suitable areas in Central China, East China and North China. Compared with the gray silver chrysanthemum, the invasion of silver chrysanthemum in China is more serious. We should focus on the invasion dynamics of silver chrysanthemum and strengthen its monitoring and prevention and control.

Key words: Parthenium, MaxEnt, suitable area, climate change

摘要： 结合多个时期CMIP6气候变量数据和两种银胶菊属Parthenium物种在全球的分布数据，运用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件，模拟分析两种银胶菊属植物在中国的潜在适生区。结果表明，各时期模拟预测结果的AUC值均大于0.9，模型预测准确，结果可靠；影响银胶菊P. hysterophorus在中国分布的主导因子依次为最湿季降雨量、最冷季平均温度、温度季节性、等温性，影响灰白银胶菊P. argentatum的主导因子为平均气温日较差、等温性、最干月降雨量、最冷季平均温度。在气候变化影响下，银胶菊的潜在适生区在未来有扩大，灰白银胶菊潜在适生区变化不大；银胶菊潜在适生区迁移方向主要为南北方向，纬度有所变化；当前及未来银胶菊的高适生区主要在华南及西南地区，未来气候下银胶菊在华中、华东、华北都存在适生区。相对于灰白银胶菊，银胶菊在我国的入侵危害更严重，应重点关注其入侵动态，加强监测与防控。

关键词: 银胶菊属, MaxEnt, 适生区, 气候变化