Population Structure of Abies
chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change
Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2025.06.008

Subtropical Plant Science ›› 2025, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (6): 660-671.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-7791.2025.06.008

• Research articles • Previous Articles Next Articles

Population Structure of Abies chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area

LI Bing-qian¹, XU Zi-jing², PU Yun-hai², WANG Li², QU Ding-lian³, XIANG Ming³, FU Qiang^1*, LIU Xiu-qun^1*

(1. National Key Laboratory of Germplasm Innovation and Utilization of Horticultural Crops / College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei China; 2. Wild Animal and Plant Conservation Station of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, Hubei China; 3. Forestry Administration of Shennongjia Forest Region, Shennongjia 442499, Hubei China)

Received:2025-08-04 Accepted:2025-11-03 Online:2025-12-31 Published:2025-12-31
Contact: FU Qiang; LIU Xiu-qun

神农架林区秦岭冷杉种群结构及其气候变化情景下适生区预测

李冰倩¹，徐自警²，蒲云海²，王莉²，屈定镰³，向铭³，傅强^1*，刘秀群^1*

(1. 华中农业大学果蔬园艺作物种质创新与利用全国重点实验室 / 园艺林学学院，湖北武汉 430070；2. 湖北省野生动植物保护总站，湖北武汉 430079；3. 神农架林区林业管理局，湖北神农架 442499)

通讯作者: 傅强; 刘秀群
基金资助:
湖北省野生动植物保护总站2025年委托项目“湖北省秦岭冷杉、花榈木、罗田玉兰等极小种群野生植物资源调查与监测”

Abstract

Abstract: Abies chensiensis, a National Key Protected Wild Plant at Category Ⅱ, is distributed discontinuously in high-altitude areas of the transitional zone between north subtropical and warm temperate zones in China, and is highly sensitive to temperature. It possesses ornamental, medicinal, and ecological values. However, its population has been decreasing due to climate warming and human disturbance. To scientifically protect A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area, this study investigated and analyzed its population structure using the transect line method and quadrat method; ArcGIS and MaxEnt model were used to predict its potential suitable habitats and analyze the main environmental factors affecting its distribution. The results were as follows: (1) There are 5569 individuals of A. chensiensis in the Shennongjia Forest Area; There were 221 species of vascular plants belonging to 155 genera and 75 families in the community where A. chensiensis was located in Shennongjia Forest Area, which could be divided into 13 geographical components, and the temperate distribution was the basic characteristic of the community. (2) Population size classification indicated that seedlings and young trees had a low frequency of occurrence in the 20 quadrats, and age class classification showed that trees in the middle diameter class accounted for a large proportion. The distribution area of A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area was estimated to be between 1.33～1.85 km², and the number was between 34 517 and 40 965 using ArcGIS software. (3) The MaxEnt model prediction showed that under the current climate scenario, mean annual temperature (bio1) and isothermality (bio3) were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of A. chensiensis in the Shennongjia Forest Area, with contribution rates of 33.9% and 29.0%, respectively; the total suitable habitat area of A. chensiensis in Shennongjia Forest Area was about 827.08 km², concentrated in the northwest of the region. Under different future climate scenarios, the area of its suitable habitats would decrease to varying degrees.

Key words: Shennongjia Forest Area, Abies chensiensis, population characteristics, MaxEnt model, potential distribution area

摘要： 秦岭冷杉Abies chensiensis是国家二级重点保护野生植物，集中分布在陕西南部、甘肃西南部和湖北西北部等高海拔山区，兼具观赏、药用与生态价值。由于气候变暖、人为干扰等因素导致该种数量减少。为了对神农架林区秦岭冷杉的科学保护提供依据，采用样线法和样方法调查并分析其种群结构；利用ArcGIS和MaxEnt模型，分析影响其分布的主要环境因子，并对秦岭冷杉在神农架林区的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明：(1) 神农架林区共有秦岭冷杉5569株，其群落内共有维管植物75科155属221种，属的分布型包含13个地理成分，温带分布是群落的基本特征。(2) 在20个样方中幼苗和幼树出现频率低，中间径级的个体占比大；利用ArcGIS软件预估神农架林区内秦岭冷杉分布面积介于1.33～1.85 km²之间，数量为34 517～40 965株。(3) MaxEnt模型预测显示，年平均气温(bio1)、等温性(bio3)是影响神农架林区秦岭冷杉适生区分布的主导环境因素，贡献率分别为33.9%、29.0%；当前气候情景下神农架林区秦岭冷杉总适生区面积约827.08 km²，集中分布在神农架林区西北部，在未来不同气候情景下其适生区面积均有不同程度缩减。

关键词: 神农架林区, 秦岭冷杉, 种群特征, 群落特征, 最大熵模型, 潜在分布区

CLC Number:

Q948

LI Bing-qian, XU Zi-jing, PU Yun-hai, WANG Li, QU Ding-lian, XIANG Ming, FU Qiang, LIU Xiu-qun. Population Structure of Abies chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area[J]. Subtropical Plant Science, 2025, 54(6): 660-671.

李冰倩, 徐自警, 蒲云海, 王莉, 屈定镰, 向铭, 傅强, 刘秀群. 神农架林区秦岭冷杉种群结构及其气候变化情景下适生区预测[J]. 亚热带植物科学, 2025, 54(6): 660-671.

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Population Structure of Abies chensiensis and Prediction of Its Suitable Habitats Under Climate Change Scenarios in Shennongjia Forest Area

神农架林区秦岭冷杉种群结构及其气候变化情景下适生区预测

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